*NEW* Drought Forecast: It Should Get Worse January 19 2015

The drought will improve.... the drought will remain the same... the drought will get worse, possibly much worse... we have heard all of these statements before in the last few months from the National Drought Monitor; it's enough to spin your head around in confusion. 

But on January 15th the National Weather Service released it's new outlook and after a series of forecasts previously with good news for Texoma, this time the news isn't so good. 

Here is the simple truth:  the new information indicates that the drought should remain and/or intensify throughout Texoma (see Figure One).

The drought outlook is for the time frame of:  January 15, 2015 through April 30, 2015.  It was released on Thursday, January 15, 2015.

Other areas of the nation that are forecast to see the drought remain and/or intensify include the following areas:
  • western Kentucky/Tennessee
  • eastern Arkansas
  • northeast South Dakota
  • southern/central Kansas
  • central/western Oklahoma
  • the Panhandle, north and central Texas
  • western Utah
  • Nevada
  • central and northern California
  • southern/central Idaho
  • Oregon
  • southeast Washington

According to The Drought Monitor it "depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short-and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts.  Short-term events -- such as individual storms -- cannot be accurately forecast more than a few days in advance. Use caution for applications -- such as crops -- that can be affected by such events.  "Ongoing" drought areas are approximated from the Drought Monitor."

The Drought Monitor report is authored by David Miskus of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Recent reports from the Drought Monitor, specifically in the fall of 2014 had the drought dramatically improving throughout Texoma.... and it didn't happen.  What went wrong with the forecast?  The answer is simple; the El Nino that was forecast to develop in the Pacific Ocean didn't form the way it was predicted.  Therefore, the global pattern change alterations that were anticipated to help improve our drought situation in Texoma did not come to pass.

So now we are facing another year of intense drought from the Drought Monitor.  But keep hope alive.  If the forecast can flip flop from good to bad it can just as easily flip flop from bad to good next time around.

The next Drought Monitor report should be out in mid-February 2015.